June 2, 2022
By Scott Munnoch, Temple Scott Associates
In case any of you missed it, the election is in its final day and tomorrow the eligible voters of Ontario will cast their ballots in the 43rd provincial election.
Yes, tomorrow is election day!
In what has been one of the sleepiest elections ever, voters will have a say in the direction of the province for the next 4 years. They will have a chance to analyse the party platforms, the leaders and their abilities. They will take a look at many factors and then go in and vote.
Or they will just vote.
In all probability, tomorrow’s low voter turnout will see most vote for who they know and who they don’t know. The campaign has done very little to change that. In fact, almost every poll is pointing to a PC majority, some with numbers even surpassing the majority they received in the 2018 election.
So how did we get here?
Andrea Horwath of the NDP ran a negative campaign on everyone else’s agenda but her own. While she made announcements, she never made an impact with her messaging — she no sooner announced her policy position than she commented on her opponent’s positions. Just yesterday, she spent the day condemning gun laws, an issue clearly dominated by the Liberals. And while the PC’s and Greens both commented on guns during the campaign, they did so as an aside and didn’t let it get in the way of their own messaging.
Michael Schreiner increased his presence, largely because of a relatively strong showing in the only official debate between leaders. However, it’s safe to say that he continues to lead a one-issue party not seen as a true alternative on other key issues besides the environment and climate change.
Steven Del Duca floundered and struggled with having any positive impact on most issues. He did a good job by owning the gun control issue, but then his federal counterparts came along and took it over, leaving him on the sidelines to agree with them, just as his provincial counterparts all did. The staging of his events was dull with little enthusiasm. Watching an announcement surrounded by supporters can be a great communications tool. But get the right supporters to stand with him – not those who stood expressionless and unreactive to his comments. Most looked like they were attending a wake, and maybe they were. Add all this to his own bland style and its hard to see where Del Duca makes a breakthrough. He may not even win his own seat.
Premier Doug Ford did exactly what he had to do. He spent the campaign doing very few events of substance. The PC platform was dealt with in the April 29th budget and nothing new was announced over the campaign. Instead, Ford re-announced key budget items that were winners in the public eye. He did people-events such as mainstreeting with candidates and regional rallies, the things Ford does best. He avoided the media when he could with limited scrum opportunities and virtually no one-on-one interviews – he didn’t have to! And when he did speak, for the most part, he kept to the script.
And so tomorrow voters will cast their ballots and soon after the polls close at 9:00 pm we should know the results – a PC victory. The opposition ranking remains to be seen but with a PC majority, it matters little.
On June 3rd, the jockeying for Cabinet positions begins. Look for the focus to be on who will be the next Minister of Health and the domino effect it will create.
The 43rd Ontario provincial election will not be one to remember – unless you’re Doug Ford.
Ontario Election Pool
Temple Scott Associates is hosting an election pool where you can enter who you think will win, how many seats and who will win in key races. If you would like to participate click here and fill in the required questions and submit by Noon EDT on June 2, 2022.
Besides bragging rights to the winner, TSA will provide a donation to the Red Cross Ukraine Humanitarian Crisis Appeal on the winner’s behalf.
Employers must give employees time off on Election Day (June 2)
Employees to have three consecutive hours for voting
Every employee who is qualified to vote shall, while the polls are open on polling day at an election, have three consecutive hours for the purpose of voting and, if the hours of his or her employment do not allow for three consecutive hours, the employee may request that his or her employer allow such additional time for voting as may be necessary to provide those three consecutive hours and the employer shall grant the request. R.S.O. 1990, c. E.6, s. 6 (3).
Deduction from pay prohibited
No employer shall make any deduction from the pay of any employee or impose upon or exact from the employee any penalty by reason of his or her absence from work during the consecutive hours that the employer is required to allow under subsection (3). R.S.O. 1990, c. E.6, s. 6 (4).
Time off best suiting convenience of employer
Any time off for voting as provided in subsection (3) shall be granted at the time of day that best suits the convenience of the employer. R.S.O. 1990, c. E.6, s. 6 (5).
For more information contact Elections Ontario
ECONOMIC IMPACT & RESOURCES
Bank of Canada raises benchmark interest rate to 1.5%, signals more hikes on the way
The Bank of Canada took another aggressive step in its hiking cycle, raising its overnight interest rate by 50 basis points for a second consecutive time and warning that it may be even “more forceful” if needed to tackle inflation.
The central bank raised the overnight rate to 1.5 per cent at a policy decision on Wednesday and delivered a hawkish statement that aired worries about inflation pressures intensifying and becoming entrenched at elevated levels.
While the 50-basis-point hike was expected, the language will fuel speculation that policy makers led by Governor Tiff Macklem are considering a faster pace of tightening than they had been suggesting. Markets are pricing in another half-point increase at the July 13 meeting, before slowing the pace of tightening in the second half of this year. The central bank is seen stopping around the three per cent mark.
The central bank “is prepared to act more forcefully if needed to meet its commitment to achieve the two per cent inflation target,” the Bank of Canada said in the prepared statement.
“The risk of elevated inflation becoming entrenched has risen,” the officials said, adding that they would use their tools to return inflation to target and keep expectations “well-anchored.”
There’s little ambiguity about the key messaging and main points of the bank’s actions. The statement highlighted how inflation is well above target and could go higher before easing, with price pressures broadening. Officials also said the economy is “clearly” operating with excess demand while growth is poised to remain heated.
The back-to-back jumbo increases are unprecedented since the bank began adjusting monetary policy at fixed decision dates in 2000, and are meant to be an overwhelming response to the stronger-than-anticipated inflation dogging the nation.
Policy makers conceded that inflation is rising faster than their April forecasts and “will likely move even higher in the near term before beginning to ease.”
Even with Wednesday’s increase, interest rates remain stimulative. The central bank estimates that its policy rate needs to rise to between two to three per cent in order for borrowing costs to no longer be inflationary. But its new hawkish comments could fuel a debate whether the central bank may need to increase rates beyond the neutral range and actively slow economic growth in order to contain three-decade-high inflation.
The bank said the housing market is “moderating” from “exceptionally” elevated levels of activity, while noting that consumer spending remains robust.
The hike brings the bank’s rate within a quarter of a point of the 1.75 per cent level it was at before the pandemic, and the bank made it clear in its statement that several more rate increases are planned.
StatsCan: Client-facing industries continue to lead the growth, benefiting from easing of public health restrictions
In March, the client-facing industries continued to recover ground lost in December 2021 and January 2022 when public health measures were put in place to dampen the spread of the Omicron variant.
Accommodation and food services continue to grow
Following a 14.3% jump in February, the accommodation and food services sector rose 10.9% in March as both subsectors were up.
Food services and drinking places (+8.5%) led the growth in March as capacity restrictions continued to be lifted and the proof of COVID-19 vaccination requirements were eliminated across several provinces during the month.
Accommodation services rose 17.3% in March, up for a second consecutive month. Traveller accommodation services led the growth, lifted by a higher number of domestic and international travellers in the month.
Transportation and warehousing keeps rolling
Transportation and warehousing rose 3.2% in March, following a 2.4% growth in February, as 8 of 10 subsectors were up.
Air transportation jumped 57.2% in March as airlines carried more goods and passengers. The lifting of restrictions on international arrivals’ landing ports along with pent-up demand for March break travel by the general public all positively contributed to the spike in activity.
Support activities rose 2.6% in March, up for a fifth time in six months, on a broad-based growth across most industries as only support activities for rail were down in the month.
Transit, ground passenger, and scenic and sightseeing transportation expanded 3.0% in March, up for the second month in a row, benefiting from an increase in public transit ridership.
Pipeline transportation increased 1.8%, the highest monthly growth rate since November 2020, as pipeline movement of natural gas and crude oil and other transportation both rose in March 2022.
Arts, entertainment and recreation performs well in March
The arts, entertainment and recreation sector increased 13.5% in March, the largest growth rate since July 2020, as many spectator sport venues, recreation centres and casinos allowed more patrons to attend their facilities.
Amusement, gambling and recreation industries (+14.7%) contributed the most to the growth in March as higher activity at casinos, bingo halls and other gaming terminals led the increase.
Performing arts, spectator sports and related industries, and heritage institutions grew 11.9% in March as attendance at professional sporting and performing arts events increased.
Construction up, building upon two months of growth
The construction sector rose 1.2% in March, with output surpassing April 2021 to reach an all-time high, with all subsectors contributing to the growth.
In March, residential building construction (+1.8%) led the growth for the third month in a row, with home alterations and improvements and construction of single-detached homes contributing the most to the increase during the month.
Non-residential building construction rose 0.9% in March, up for the ninth consecutive month. All construction activities posted gains with commercial building construction contributing the most to the increase, driven in part by a retail development in Mount Royal, Quebec.
Engineering and other construction activities increased 0.6% in March, continuing an upward trend that began at the end of 2020 and is 1.9% below February 2020’s pre-pandemic level of activity. Repair construction rose 1.2% in March 2022, up for the seventh time in eight months, as both the residential and non-residential segments expanded.
Finance and insurance up as global instability creates market volatility
The finance and insurance sector increased 0.4% in March, up for a 10th month in a row, on a broad-based growth across the sector. The escalating conflict in Ukraine and the isolation of Russia from the global financial markets, contributed in part towards an unprecedented net inflow of funds in the Canadian economy in March, as the value of traded activity on the Toronto Stock Exchange climbed to the highest level since March 2020.
Financial investment services, funds and other financial vehicles rose at its fastest pace since November 2020, up 2.1% in March 2022.
Wholesale trade declines
Wholesale trade contracted 0.7% in March, down for the third month in a row, as five of nine subsectors were down.
Machinery, equipment and supplies wholesaling (-3.9%) contributed the most to the decline in March, as all industries comprising the subsector were down. Farm products wholesaling contracted 15.1% in March as lower output of grain and oilseed dealers was reflected in lower exports of canola and other grains as supplies dwindled following a drought-stricken 2021 harvest.
Miscellaneous wholesaling (+4.2%) rose for the second month in a row, and building materials and supplies wholesaling expanded 1.7% in March, benefiting from an increase in construction activity.
Retail activity shrinks for the second month in a row
The retail trade sector contracted 0.6% in March, down for the second month in a row, as a decline in the motor vehicle and parts dealers subsector more than offset gains in the majority of other subsectors. Excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers, retail trade rose 0.7%. Motor vehicle and parts dealers dropped 7.7%, the largest monthly decline since December 2020, as activity at dealers’ lots dipped for the second month in a row.
POLICY UPDATES
New Brunswick: Cooling tower legislation passes, province expects rules in place by April 2023
Legislation to implement a cooling tower registry passed third reading in the legislature on May 19 and will likely receive royal assent in June. The law will require building owners and operators to have a licence to operate a cooling tower. Regulations will impose rules about maintenance and regular testing. There are about 500 of the towers across New Brunswick.
The City of Hamilton implemented a registry following outbreaks in 2006 and 2008, while Quebec also implemented rules after a deadly outbreak in 2012.
