Ontario – The election’s not over yet……or is it?

By Scott Munnoch, Temple Scott Associates

As we enter the home stretch of the 2022 Ontario provincial election, we can look back on the activities of the Leader’s and their parties and we can look forward to election day, one week from today.

It’s safe to say that it has been a very quiet affair, in fact, some might argue it’s hardly been noticeable. Do most people know there’s an election coming up – probably. Do they know what the key issues are? Maybe. Do they know the Leaders of the main parties? Well, this is probably where the differences truly arise.

Doug Ford has been in office for 4 straight years, most of which was dominated by a worldwide pandemic. For the first 20 months he governed in the typical way, reaching out to Ontarians with a focus on the issues he spoke to in the 2018 election. But that changed in March 2020 when the pandemic hit and to reassure Ontarians he did a daily news conference for 18 months. Everyone in the province, and more than likely the country, learned who Doug Ford was. Their opinions varied, but he was a very well-known commodity.

Andrea Horwath was the Leader of the Official Opposition, but largely ineffective in the role. Her focus in Question Period rarely gained media attention and when the House rose for extended periods, she was often missing-in-action, leaving her party’s commentary to a variety of unknown backbenchers.

The Liberals were in a mess following their complete wipeout in the 2018 election where voters clearly showed they were fed up and wanted change.  A leadership process elected Steven Del Duca as Leader just days before the pandemic hit and the world shut-down. He was a former member in the Legislature swept out in 2018 and as such had virtually no platform to speak to the issues. His style also proved to be ineffective.

So, jump ahead to today and these characteristics of the 3 main Leaders have basically continued throughout the election.

Without a single compelling issue, Del Duca and Horwath are battling for attention with a series of announcements designed to be publicly popular to the average citizen, but with limited costing or long-range planning.  In some cases, they are attacking Ford’s spending proposals in order to get provincial attention while the issue is tops to the regional voter. Case in point is the building of Highway 413. In other cases, such as promising province-wide $Buck-a-ride for transit for 2 years, there seems to be some doubt either in the validity of the proposition or of what happens when the promise ends.

Ford’s greatest asset today is that people know him. They know what he stands for and polling has showed they think he would make the best Premier of the three Leaders. So, he has taken the frontrunner’s strategy and run. Appearing only sparingly and keeping to a well-drafted script. He has avoided the media for significant periods of time which annoys no one – except the media.

And so, as the election enters the final days, the polls have been consistent throughout the campaign with very minimal movement by any Leader. The vote is solidifying. A re-elected PC government is all but guaranteed, pointing to a majority again – the only real questions left to be answered are how big will the majority be and who will be the Official Opposition. This is good news for Ford, but not so much for the others.

In the final days, Ford will be hosting large rallies designed to show momentum. Del Duca and Horwath will be trying to get attention in any way they can.

The election’s not over yet…..but it is.

POLICY UPDATE

Quebec language law Bill 96 adopted, promising sweeping changes for anyone doing business in the province 

Bill 96, the provincial government’s controversial legislation aimed at protecting the French language in Quebec, has been adopted in the National Assembly. The bill was designed as an update to Quebec’s original language law, Bill 101, but it contains huge, sweeping changes that will make deep marks in the justice system and college education system, among many other sectors of Quebec society.

Among other things, it would make it mandatory for new immigrants in Quebec to communicate with any government entity entirely in French starting just six months after their arrival.

The bill would also change the system for deciding how many judges in Quebec must be bilingual, shifting that power to the justice minister — who is currently the same person as the minister responsible for French.

MNAs voted 78-29 in favour of passing the law Tuesday afternoon, with opposition members from the Liberal Party and Parti Québécois voting against it. 

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR BUSINESSES?

Here are some of the ways in which we expect Bill 96 will impact employers and businesses operating in Quebec:

Conducting Business:

Businesses will have heightened requirements with respect to their communications in French with consumers as well as non-consumers and the Quebec government.

• Offering goods and services in French: The bill introduces explicit requirements for businesses to offer goods and services to consumers, as well as non-consumers, and agencies of civil administration, in French. Under the current regime, consumers have the right to be informed and served in French, but the new Bill extends the requirements to non-consumers and explicitly imposes the corollary obligation on businesses to respect such right.
• Contracts and other documents must be in French: Bill 96 elaborates on the existing requirement that contracts pre-determined by one party, contracts containing standard clauses, and the related documents, must be drawn up in French. The current interpretation of this rule is that parties may execute an English-only agreement as long as it contains a clause whereby the parties agree that only an English version will be drafted and executed. Once the amendments are in force, however, businesses will have to provide a French version of these documents before a counterparty expresses a wish to be bound by a version written in another language.
• Contracts drawn up exclusively in French: Contracts entered into with Quebec civil administration will have to be drawn up exclusively in French, with few exceptions, regardless of whether the contracting enterprise is operating in Quebec or not.
• Permit applications exclusively in French: Written documents sent to government agencies by businesses in order to obtain a permit, authorization, subsidy, or financial assistance shall be drawn up exclusively in French.
• Registering security in French: Bill 96 amends to the Civil Code of Quebec that would require all registrations of security on movable property in Quebec to be exclusively in French, i.e. including the description of the relevant collateral being charged.

Public Signs and Advertising:

Bill 96 narrows the existing trademark exception relied upon by many national and international businesses to ensure branding consistency.

• The trademark exception is narrowed: Currently, a trademark recognized under Canadian trademark legislation (which includes both common trademarks and trademarks for which an application is pending) may appear on public signs and posters exclusively in a language other than French, with some additional requirements in respect of public signs and posters displayed outside an immovable. Bill 96 stipulates that such exception can only be used in connection with registered trademarks, provided that no corresponding French version appears in the Canadian Trademarks Database.

In the Workplace: Bill 96 strengthens and expands on employers’ obligations with respect to communicating with employees and prospective employees in French, employees’ French language rights, and complying with francization requirements. For more information about how Bill 96 will affect employment in Quebec, please read our blog post here.

Non-compliance:

Currently, the Charter only provides for administrative fines and the potential suspension or withdrawal of the francization certificate, if applicable.

• Ability to bring a civil action: The amendments would allow people who feel their language rights are violated under the Charter to bring a civil right of action against the offender.
• Permits and authorizations: Repeated contraventions of the Charter may result in suspension or revocation of government permits or authorizations.
• Fines will increase: The fines for non-compliance with the Charter will increase to $3,000 to $30,000 for businesses. It provides for the doubling of fines for a second offence and tripling for a subsequent offence, and considers each day an offence persists as a separate offence.
• Injunctions and court orders: The OQLF will gain the ability to request an injunction to force compliance with the requirements of the Charter, or a court order for the removal or destruction of posters, signs or advertisements that contravene the Charter, at the expense of the offending business.

OTHER NEWS

Ontario Carpenters union on strike since early May announces tentative agreement

The Carpenters District Council of Ontario has announced it has reached a tentative agreement for carpenters in the industrial, commercial and institutional (ICI) sector.

The union has been on strike since May 9 after union members voted down a prior tentative agreement. Since then, some 15,000 carpenters have been on picket lines across the province.

According to a news release issued Wednesday, ratification votes for the agreement will happen across Ontario on Friday May 27, with a final tally in the afternoon.

Job vacancies hit record in Canada’s tight labour market

Canadian employers reported a surge in job vacancies in March that brought the number of unfilled positions to a record.

Openings increased 13.4 per cent seasonally adjusted to just over 1 million, Statistics Canada reported Thursday, based on its monthly survey of employers. That’s up about 60 per cent from the same period a year earlier.

The job vacancy rate — the number of unfilled jobs as a share of all positions — was 5.9 per cent in March, matching a record high recorded last September. There was an average of 1.2 unemployed people for each job vacancy, down from 1.4 in February and 2.6 a year ago, according to the statistics agency.

The data illustrate the extent to which the nation’s labor market has been tightening. According to Statistics Canada’s separate labor force survey, Canada’s unemployment rate hit a record low of 5.2 per cent in April. 

Growing evidence of a drum-tight labor market provides a green light for the Bank of Canada to move ahead with another half-percentage-point increase in its benchmark interest rate at a decision next week.

Markets expect the policy rate to reach as high as 3 per cent over the next twelve months, from the current 1 per cent.

In the US, some Federal Reserve policymakers have said elevated job openings could prevent an increase in the unemployment rate as interest rates rise.

Separately Thursday, the Canadian Federation of Independent Business reported its members see wages rising by a record 3.5 per cent average over the next year. About 35 per cent of respondents see wage growth of at least 5 per cent, also a record in monthly survey data back to 2009.

Labor concerns were the most cited reason for capacity limitations, according to the CFIB poll, which was taken earlier this month. Over 54 per cent of firms polled reported that shortages of skilled labor were limiting sales and production.