May 13, 2022
Ontario election… what election?
By Scott Munnoch, Temple Scott Associates
Overheard in the local coffee shop:
“Hey what do you think of the leaders in the provincial election?”
“Election? What election?”
And while this may be a bit of an exaggeration in some parts of the province, the sentiment prevails in many towns, cities and rural areas across Ontario today.
The election is now 8 days old and the candidates, staff and volunteers are working long hours to raise the issues, touch base with citizens and convince the voters that they are the best person to represent them.
PC Leader Doug Ford has kept to his script with tight answers and focused announcements.
Steven Del Duca on the other hand, appears unscripted and open with his answers. NDP Leader Andrea Horwath is ready to speak about anything, but often without facts or figures to back up her statements.
If nothing changes, this is surely a recipe for a re-elected Ford government. For incumbents, the best news is often no news – keep focused and don’t give your opponents anything to jump on or attack. So far, Ford has done that. His public engagements are limited and he chose to skip the media availability after the Northern Ontario debate, (Oh yes there was one – last Tuesday at 1:00 pm in the afternoon). And while the main issues were health care and transportation, the attacks on Ford focused on how he handled the pandemic. Doesn’t make sense since a recent Nanos poll showed that the pandemic barely registers as an issue of interest today.
Steven Del Duca had a good week to kick off his campaign. But with respect, when expectations were as low as they were, a positive outcome in Week 1 was probably inevitable. Having said that he answers questions without a note and seems confident in his facts and figures on the spectrum of issues.
Andrea Horwath continues to be unfocused and answering whatever she’s asked without any focus on getting her own message out. Granted in yesterday’s scrum she announced a plan for a 40% reduction in auto insurance rates and yet no one is talking about it even a day later. She needs to talk about her plan and her party’s plan and not get distracted by the political noise.
Coming up, the next week is crucial to all Leaders. It most likely will be the week where change happens, if indeed it’s going to happen at all.
On Monday, May 16th at 6:30 pm, the Leaders will square off in the Ontario Leader’s Debate, broadcast live by the major TV and radio networks. Ford likely just needs to come out as he went in – unscathed and with a sense of confidence on the issues. The Opposition Leaders, on the other hand, need a shining moment – one where they clearly rise above the others and dominate the discussion. A moment where the incumbent is left without words or conviction. And while there have been moments where this has happened, this happens very rarely.
Pundits, political observers and the media will all comment on who did what and try and determine a winner. Most likely the Leaders will continue with the messaging they have been using for weeks. Most likely there will be a variety of opinions, based on individual political leanings. Most likely health care, the economy and housing, identified in recent polls, will dominate the discussion. Most likely there will be no winner.
The weather is improving and the pandemic protocols are winding down. People’s focus is on things other than on an election. One leader would like this to continue while the others are looking for a game changer. While voters generally vote to support a candidate/party, many others vote for change when the mood of the province is calling for change.
So far, the call for change is quiet. The polls indicate that there doesn’t appear to be a better alternative.
Advance polls open May 19th.
Party Platforms
- Ontario Conservative Party Platform (not yet released)
- Ontario Liberal Platform
- Ontario NDP Platform
ECONOMIC IMPACT & RESOURCES
Alberta increasing support for women entrepreneurs
Alberta is investing $6 million in grant funding for business loans aimed at supporting and empowering women entrepreneurs by providing them with more access to capital. The loan program provides low interest business loans and business advisory supports to women entrepreneurs.
Loans accessed through this grant will be administered by Alberta Women Entrepreneurs and Community Futures Network of Alberta. Each organization will receive $3 million in grant funding through the Women’s Economic Recovery – Capital Growth Initiative.
Both Alberta Women Entrepreneurs and Community Futures Network of Alberta will help women entrepreneurs by providing access to funds, as well as business supports like specialized training, advising and mentorship. Under the initiative, up to $75,000 will be available in unsecured conditionally repayable loans. Eligible costs include operating capital, equipment, leasehold improvements, inventory, non-owner salaries and professional fees.
Click here for more information.
Manitoba business group wants tax review; premier says she’s willing
The Manitoba government is open to the idea of a wide-ranging review of its taxes to remain competitive with other provinces, Premier Heather Stefanson said Thursday.
Among the taxes that Stefanson said would be looked at is what’s commonly called the payroll tax. It applies to employers when the total of what they pay out in wages exceeds a certain amount and doesn’t exist in other Prairie provinces.
The Progressive Conservative government has chipped away at the payroll tax at times. Most recently, this year’s budget raised the threshold at which companies start paying to $2 million from $1.75 million in total remuneration.
Manitoba Chamber President Chuck Davidson said he would like to see the tax eliminated. Income taxes need to be lowered as well, he said. Manitoba starts charging higher tax rates at lower incomes than neighbouring provinces.
Davidson acknowledged that Manitoba doesn’t have the kind of energy revenues that Alberta and Saskatchewan have to bolster revenues and keep taxes down, but said tax competitiveness is key to keeping workers from leaving.
Stefanson cautioned that the government cannot move too quickly as it is still working to balance the budget.
With the exception of a small surplus in 2019, the Manitoba government has not recorded a balanced budget since the fiscal year that ended in March 2009. Stefanson has promised a return to balance by 2028.
OTHER NEWS
Construction delays across Ontario loom as 15,000 walk off the job
Ontario’s construction industry is facing several strikes with tens of thousands of various trade workers off the job just as building season ramps up in the province.
A carpenters’ union was the latest to walk the picket lines on Monday. They join thousands of crane operators and more than 15,000 skilled labourers who went on strike earlier in the month.
On Monday, the Carpenter’s District Council of Ontario, United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America in the industrial, commercial and institutional (ICI) sector announced a strike, affecting more than 15,000 members.
Last week, Local 793, a union representing operating engineers, went on strike. That includes crane and equipment rental, steel erection and mechanical installations, foundation, piling and caisson boring, excavation/earth moving, general contractor construction and surveying.
Further, LiUNA’s high-rise forming, self-levelling flooring, house framers, tile installers, railing installers, and carpet and hardwood installers announced a strike on May 1.
The job action has consequences for roughly 15,000 skilled labourers in the residential sector, LiUNA said.
Why are they on strike?
When it announced its intention to strike, the carpenters’ union said it wants to see a “fair deal” for members whose “work was seen as essential during the pandemic and because of this, and because of spiralling cost of living increases, our union and our members believe that wages now have to be increased.”
Both Local 793 and LiUNA’s unions cited rising costs and wage increases as a reason to go on strike.
Gasoline prices push record highs as demand surges
Natural Resources Canada says the average price across the country for regular gasoline hit 197.4 cents per litre on Tuesday for an all-time high.
The average price inched up slightly from 197.1 cents per litre on Monday, while prices are up more that twelve cents from a week ago.
Prices averaged about $2.23 a litre in Vancouver, while in Toronto prices averaged slightly under $2 a litre and in Edmonton the average was just under $1.30 a litre.
Gasoline prices have spiked as oil tops US$100 a barrel, in part because of supply disruptions related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The higher prices also come as the re-opening of the economy has led to high demand for gasoline that refiners have limited capacity to meet.
NEWS FROM OTHER COUNTRIES
Prices in U.S. outstrip forecasts in sign of inflation persisting
US consumer prices rose by more than forecast in April, indicating inflation will persist at elevated levels for longer and keeping the Federal Reserve on the path of aggressive interest-rate hikes.
The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.6 per cent from a month earlier and 6.2 per cent from April 2021, according to Labor Department data released Wednesday. The broader CPI rose 0.3 per cent from the prior month and 8.3 per cent on an annual basis, a slight cooling but still among the highest readings in decades.
Some of the largest contributors to the monthly increase included shelter, food, airfares and new vehicles.
The core CPI topped all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists, which had a median projection of 0.4 per cent. The headline gauge was seen climbing 0.2 per cent.
A key expectation for a moderation in inflation this year hinges on slowdown in goods prices as Americans shift their discretionary income to activities like travel and dining out. The rate of goods and other commodities inflation declined while services costs increased by the most since 2001 on a monthly basis.
Food prices rose 0.9 per cent in April, and were up 9.4 per cent from a year earlier. The annual gain in food costs since 1981, including a record advance in prices for chicken, fresh seafood, baby food and prepared salads.
Energy costs declined in April, as gasoline prices fell 6.1 per cent from the prior month in what may prove to be just a temporary reprieve. Gas prices have since rebounded to a record high.
Shelter costs — which are the biggest services’ component and make up about a third of the overall index — rose 0.5 per cent for a third straight month. Rent of primary residence climbed 0.6 per cent, while owners’ equivalent rent increased by the most since 2006.
In another sign of soaring costs of household necessities, prices for energy services, which includes electricity and natural gas, were up 13.7 per cent from a year earlier in the biggest advance since 2008.
Driven by a pickup in travel plans, the cost of hotel stays rose 1.7 per cent while airfares surged a record 18.6 per cent as airlines passed along higher fuel costs to consumers. New-vehicle prices advanced 1.1 per cent, the most this year, while used-auto prices fell 0.4 per cent.
