The Bank of Canada is expected to once again hold the line on interest rates Wednesday, but could tip its hand on whether it will restart its rate-raising campaign later in the year, economists and bank watchers say.
Most forecasters expect the Bank to leave its key lending rate at 4.5 per cent Wednesday morning. Investors seem to agree, with trading on the overnight swaps market indicating less than a 10 per cent chance of a change. But CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld says the bank may add cautionary language to its announcement that it could restart its inflation-fighting rate hikes again. The reason? Strong jobs growth, and a robust economy.
“In this topsy-turvy world, good news for the economy isn’t really what we’re looking for,” said Shenfeld, noting that the Bank has been trying to slow down the economy to get inflation under control — a gentle slowdown and soft landing, versus the economy crashing. “If the slowdown that central banks are aiming at fails to materialize, that could force yet more rate hikes, and risk a harder landing.”
At the same time as its 10 a.m. rate announcement, the Bank will also unveil its latest Monetary Policy Report, a detailed look at national and global economic trends followed by a press conference with bank governor Tiff Macklem.
