Reference to the CFA’s Advocacy Update from June 9, 2022

By Scott Munnoch, Temple Scott Associates

As expected, Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative Party won the most seats in last week’s provincial election and will now form a second consecutive majority government. The official results are: PC’s 83; NDP 31; Liberal 8; Green 1 and 1 independent.

Leading from start to finish, Ford took a very safe, risk-free approach to the campaign, correctly judging the complacent mood of the Ontario electorate. Neither NDP Leader Andrea Horwath not Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca were able to break through and create a reason for change. The electorate clearly decided they were okay with the status quo for the time being. Voter turnout was one of the lowest on record at just 43%, down from the already low level of 58% in the previous election in 2018.

During their respective speeches, Doug Ford called for unification while both NDP Leader Andrea Horwath and Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca announced their intentions to step down as Leaders of their respective parties.

The strong majority means that the PC government will not have to rely on any other party in order to pass legislation. With the pandemic fears winding down, the government will be looking to return to an agenda of economic growth with a strong focus on post-pandemic recovery.

The Plan

During the campaign, Doug Ford focused on delivering key polices to build Ontario. He said yes to getting more women and men in the skills trades, yes to more newcomers to come here and find a job, yes to building Highway 413 and the Bradford bypass, yes to building subways and expanding GO Train service, yes to restoring the Northlander train service and yes to building 1.5 million homes over the next 10 years.

If the government sticks to its plan, as outlined in Budget 2022, delivered on April 29th, the core commitment includes a move away from the pandemic spending and a focus on five main themes. Each theme is aimed at the government’s priorities as highlighted by earlier announcements and is focused on their most urgent priorities for Ontarians. The five themes in the budget are: Rebuilding Ontario’s Economy; Working for Workers; Building Highways and Key Infrastructure; Keeping Costs Down and A Plan to Stay Open.

With respect to the small businesses, Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy will likely continue to advocate as mentioned in the budget:

Ontario’s small businesses are an important part of Ontario’s economy, employing more than two million people in communities across the province. The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted small

businesses significantly, and they continue to face unique challenges in accessing capital, talent and markets. Small business owners are resilient and hard-working, with big dreams and bold ambitions. The Ontario government is committed to helping the province’s entrepreneurs recover and thrive.

Short term

First up will be the establishment of the new Cabinet. With all Ministers re-elected and some new talent added to the mix, Leader Doug Ford will have to make some tough decisions. And, with new caucus members representing the non-traditional conservative regions, look for a geographical expansion of the Cabinet as well. This might include: Neil Lumsden (Hamilton East-Stoney Creek), Andrew Dowie (Windsor-Tecumseh), Andrew Leardi (Essex), George Pirie (Timmins) and Kevin Holland (Thunder Bay – Atikokan).

Additionally, new members have been elected with strong backgrounds and must be considered. This list includes: lawyer Todd McCarthy (Durham), businessmen Rob Flack (Elgin–Middlesex–London) and Rick Byers (Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound) and former city Councilors Michael Ford (York South – Weston), Charmaine Williams (Brampton Centre) and Trevor Jones (Chatham-Kent-Leamington).

Top of the list and most importantly will be to fill the shoes of retired Health Minister and Deputy Premier, Christine Elliott. Look for a veteran Minister from the first term to fill the Health portfolio and then watch the domino effect as changes result throughout the Ministry. Stephen Lecce (King-Vaughan), a Ford favorite, is a possible choice here which then opens up Education etc. etc. Other Ministers that have performed well include Todd Smith (Bay of Quinte), Monte McNaughton (Lambton-Kent-Middlesex), Caroline Mulroney (York-Simcoe), Sylvia Jones (Dufferin Caledon), Paul Calandra (Markham-Stouffville) and Stan Cho (Willowdale).

The Premier will have to balance competence with gender, ethnicity and geography, meaning that sometimes the best people get shortchanged. Also, some re-elected Ministers are simply too established in their Ministries to warrant a change. Look for Peter Bethlenfalvy (Finance), Doug Downey (Attorney General) and Vic Fedeli (Economic Development, Job Creation & Trade) to remain in their current portfolios.

The Ontario NDP led by Andrea Horwath won 31 seats and will form the Official Opposition, albeit with a new Leader selected in the months ahead. The Liberal party, with just 8 seats, failed to gain official party status, meaning that the Liberals will be considered independents in the eyes of the Legislature along with Green Party member Michael Schreiner (Guelph) and Independent member Bobbi Ann Brady (Haldimand-Norfolk).

With respect to post-pandemic recovery, Doug Ford promised Ontarians he would keep the economy open. This is evident in his significant investments announced in healthcare; such as the $40 billion into hospitals, giving nurses a 7.6% increase with a $5,000-dollar bonus, PSW’s $3 increase per hour and hiring 27,000 more.

The predicting and timing of the announcement of the new Cabinet is always a guessing game with very few insiders knowing for sure until just day(s) before. However, based on past practices, the Cabinet is likely to be sworn-in the week of June 20th. The process is a closely guarded secret within the Premier’s Office and directed by the Premier and his Chief of Staff, Jamie Wallace.

As for the return of the House, the government has indicated a desire to pass the budget. All members need to be sworn in before the House can return. The governing conservatives successfully campaigned on the budget and are unlikely to make any significant changes.

Traditionally, the new Cabinet members are given some time to get acclimated with their new Ministries and select/appoint staff before being subjected to Question Period in the House or the media outside. This would point to a summer session of the Legislature to deal with the budget. Taking into consideration the Canada Day long weekend, a likely date for the return of the House might be July 11th, some 5 weeks after the election and 2/3 weeks after the Cabinet is decided. With a focus on passing the budget, there are certain regulatory issues that need to be dealt with as well, but it would be unlikely to see the House sitting past the end of July. Any debate on the budget would be preceded by a Throne Speech to start the new session.

The Legislative calendar then suggests the House break until September 12th when it would return to its normal schedule. Given the exhaustive schedule of the past few months, this might be extended with the possible return of the House coming on October 11th after Thanksgiving.

Look for the government to get very engaged on issues starting this fall. With the pandemic virtually behind us, they will want to return to an economic growth platform and a return to key platform planks from 2018 that included the elimination of hallway medicine.

Stakeholder engagement will be ramping up once again after the House deals with the budget, although it is expected that the halls of Queens Park will be mostly quiet during the month of August. But with no election now virtually guaranteed until June 2026, and with a significant majority, it is likely that the government will be aggressive in pushing through its commitments from the election while the Liberals and NDP are both preoccupied with leadership contests.