Reference to the CFA’s Advocacy Update from September 15, 2022

After seven months of waiting, the most expected thing in Canadian politics was finally made official: Pierre Poilievre is the new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada. Poilievre was the favourite from the outset, arguably the most prohibitive favourite that the Party has had since Stephen Harper’s victory in the Party’s first ever leadership contest.

Poilievre received 68.15 per cent of the vote, far outpaced his progressive Conservative rival and runner up Jean Charest’s 16.07 per cent of the vote. MP Leslyn Lewis placed third, with 9.69 per cent, former Ontario MPP Roman Baber placed fourth, with 5.03 per cent of the vote, and mayor-turned-MP Scott Aitchison finished last with 1.06 per cent of the vote.

While the race had its moments of excitement and interest, such as the Party’s disqualification of Patrick Brown as a candidate, or the late endorsement of Poilievre by former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, the end result was never really in doubt. Perhaps more interesting than the race is what comes next, and what that means for the future of the Conservative Party.

Poilievre, in keeping with his previous role as Conservative Shadow Minister for Finance, is likely to retain a laser focus on the economy and the government’s fiscal record. His Conservatives are likely to take every opportunity to indicate their opposition and desire for the downfall of the current Liberal government. While the Tories under O’Toole and Scheer would, on rare occasions, vote with the government, expect none of this from Poilievre’s Tories. Canada’s politics are about to enter two-plus years of extended personality warfare between the Leaders of its two major parties.

We can also expect the issue of the carbon tax and climate change to re-emerge as political issues. Poilievre is one of Canada’s vehement opponents of the Trudeau Government’s national carbon pricing framework and we can expect this contrast to once again emerge as a key faultline in Canadian politics.

Conservative Members consistently expressed their wish for ‘a fighter’ at the head of their Party during this leadership contest. They have, in that sense, elected the Mike Tyson of Conservative politicians.

The Poilievre campaign strategy represents a distinct change from his predecessor in ways that go beyond ideology. The O’Toole campaign was predicated on the assumption that the path to Conservative victory lay in appealing to a conventionally defined ‘centre’ and as a result strategically retreated from contentious issues in order to reassure wavering Red Tories while attracting former Liberal voters who have become disenchanted with Trudeau’s record.

Poilievre’s campaign has always rejected this approach and has instead sought to supercharge base conservative voters while explicitly appealing to non-traditional voters who were previously disengaged with Canadian politics. A core Poilievre strategic assumption is that his targeted, and often confrontational, anti-establishment approach will appeal to a significantly larger share of the voting population as opposed to a more diluted ‘centrist’ campaign.

One unforeseen wrinkle to this could be that Poilievre’s introduction to the Canadian public could come in his official House response to the death of Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth II. Such occasions are rarely partisan affairs, and it might be an interesting glimpse into whether a ‘Poilievre the Statesman’ exists as an asset for Conservatives.