March 6, 2025

What we know for sure:

The governing Liberal Party will select a new Leader on Sunday, March 9th. That individual will replace Justin Trudeau as Party Leader immediately. However, as the governing Party, they will only have authority within the Party until such time as the new Ministry is sworn in. Prime Minister Trudeau will continue in office until that time. There is no concrete timeline for this to occur.

The House of Commons was prorogued by outgoing Prime Minister Trudeau until Monday, March 24th. Simply put, the House of Commons will be back in business that day unless replaced by a federal election.

Prime Minister Trudeau will officially resign on a date mutually agreed upon with the new Liberal Leader and the Governor-General. Look for this to take place within a week of the March 9th leadership results.

Likely scenario roll-out:

Traditionally, the new Leader and the exiting Leader would meet the day after the Party vote on March 10th. This will set the timing for the transition of power and an agreed upon date for Trudeau’s resignation and the new Leader’s assumption of power. We expect this hand-over will take place before the House of Commons is scheduled to return on March 24th.

When the new leader is sworn in as Prime Minister, he/she will appoint a new Ministry. Because everyone assumes this will be a caretaker Ministry only, look for the most of the current Ministry members seeking re-election to hold their positions. It is likely that the runner-up members in the Leadership would also be added to the new Ministry if they are not already part of it.

Once sworn-in as Prime Minister, with a full Cabinet, look for the new Prime Minister to call a quick election and take advantage of the tumultuous polls of recent weeks. There is no need to absolutely call the election until the fall, but many doubt this will happen.

With Mark Carney leading the Liberal leadership polls, he has the added disadvantage of not having a seat in the House. If the House were to return, he would not be a member and this would put him at a significant disadvantage immediately and is a position he is likely to avoid.

If this scenario plays out, Canadians can expect an election sometime between April 22nd and May 5th. Federal elections must take place on a Monday except where the Monday is a statutory holiday where they are shifted to the Tuesday following.

Of note and possibly affecting the timing:

Once an election is called, strict spending rules apply to advertising etc. Until then the Parties can spend whatever they can afford. The Conservatives raised in excess of $40 million in 2024 which will allow them to outspend the other parties in a very significant way. An election call would freeze this to an equal and smaller amount among all registered parties.

Mark Carney turns 60 on March 16th – maybe the hype of his birthday adds to the overall timing and makes for interesting communications.

The G7 Foreign Ministers are scheduled to meet in Charlevoix, Quebec, beginning on March 12th, as a planning meeting for the G7 meeting hosted by Canada in June.

St. Patrick’s Day is March 17th, a day traditionally associated for fun and parties.

April 1 is April Fool’s Day – a day to be avoided for serious political activity.

Tariffs on Canadian goods going to the USA that are covered by the CUSMA Agreement, including the auto sector, have been paused on March 6th but will be invoked on April 2nd. Although, with president Trump, this seems to be a revolving door, but will certainly figure in a spring 2025 election campaign.

The Prime Minister of Canada is scheduled to host the G7 World Leaders in Kananaskis, Alberta on June 15-17.

Source: Temple Scott Associates