Ontario’s Premier Doug Ford called a provincial election some 16 months early under the pretense that he needed a mandate to take on President Trump and his pending trade tariffs on Canada. With a leadership vacuum in Ottawa and as Chair of the Council of the Federation (Canada’s Premier’s), Ford has assumed the role of “Captain Canada” and in that light justified the early election. It appears that the electorate agrees with him. 

Ford called the election on January 29^th with a 16-point lead in Nanos polling and today the same poll continues to show a significant lead at approximately 13 points. Leading in every region across the province, except the Toronto 416 region, Ford is on target to win another majority government one week from today. 

Ford calculated that this was the right time to go to the polls: he needed a mandate to be able to lead the country against Trump; there was political confusion across the country as the Prime Minister had announced his resignation; the Liberal Party was in the midst of a leadership race and it was the depth of winter in Canada – Ontarians weren’t paying attention. 

Additionally, there were two debates – one on the Friday afternoon of a long weekend and the other on the Monday night of the same long weekend. And if that wasn’t enough to overwhelm any media coverage of the election race, Ontario had a massive snow storm on the same weekend and an unfortunate plane crash on the Monday afternoon – the Ontario leader’s debate was barely covered. All this provides grounds for a very low voter turnout which always benefits the incumbents. 

Opposition Leader Marit Stiles of the NDP has not been able to have any impact and in fact appears to be in third place. Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie looks poised to return her Party to official Party status (minimum 12 seats), but at a distance behind the Progressive Conservatives. Canada 338, a combination of the various polls is in fact today showing the NDP in a tie for seats with the Liberals, despite trailing in the popular vote (this can be attributed to similar results in 2022). Unlike the others, Crombie is also in a close battle in her own riding of Mississauga East – Cooksville. 

So, all this adds up to a strong Progressive Conservative victory. With only one week left in the campaign it is unlikely that there will be any major events that would significantly change the outcome. The Opposition Leaders will continue to try to pin shortcomings on Ford and the PC’s while Doug Ford will lie low and participate in a minimum of highly structured events – for him, no news really is good news! 

The undecided is being reported as approximately 10% meaning that even if all that group went to a single Party, it still wouldn’t have any impact.  

This campaign will go down as a political victory for Ford. Technically he gambled, for all the reasons mentioned above, but in reality, it wasn’t much of a gamble at all. The stars were all aligned in his favour and he took advantage of the political situation. Once he had an “excuse” to call the election, he was off and running. He will likely continue as Captain Canada in the short term, at least until after the next federal election expected later this spring. Afterwards it will be up to the new Prime Minister to establish a presence and take a stand against Trump – if that’s possible. 

We are in a time like we have never seen in Canada, or the world for that matter. While our political situation sorts itself out domestically, we need to be conscious of the imposing impact of a narcissistic President of the United States. Relations between our two countries are as poor as we have seen in recent memory and the future is unclear. But then again, this has created the environment that has allowed Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservatives to sweep into a third majority government. 

Doug Ford will be sworn in as Premier again and will have a strong mandate to govern until June 2029. 

Source: Temple Scott Associates