by Temple Scott Associates

Three weeks from today, on July 27th, Ontario will be subjected to two by-elections. One will be held in the riding of Kanata-Carleton, where former PC Cabinet Minister Merrilee Fullerton resigned suddenly in March for apparent family reasons. The second will be held in the eastern Toronto riding of Scarborough-Guildwood, where Liberal Mitzie Hunter resigned in May to make an unsuccessful run at the Toronto Mayor’s position.

While the outcome of these two by-elections will do nothing to change the standings in the legislature, they may provide some indication of Party strength and government popularity. Many will say that by-elections provide an excellent platform for Opposition parties to highlight their policy differences and capitalize on more intense media coverage than they would normally receive. Incumbent governments often face a barrage of attacks from all Opposition parties as they defend their records. The successful outcomes will be used by the government party to highlight their work and stress that their plan is working. On the other hand, an Opposition victory will allow a media focus on the shortcomings of government. And of course, a re-election of the incumbent parties, or status quo, will allow all parties to interpret the results as a win and a position of strength by holding the seat in challenging times.

In Scarborough-Guildwood, the riding has been held by the Liberals since its creation in redistribution in 2006. However, it was a squeaker in the 2018 election where incumbent Mitzie Hunter won by less than 100 votes. Most of this could be attributed to an unpopular Liberal government that was handed a strong defeat by the PC’s as Ontarians voted for change. Interestingly, at the time, the PC vote remained the same from the previous election but the drop in Liberal support almost cost Hunter an earlier retirement. In 2023, the PC’s have nominated Toronto City Councillor Gary Crawford, a 4-time incumbent with a very high name recognition while the Liberals will be represented by small business owner Andrea Hazell. Look for a possible upset here as voters look to support someone they know well and have supported in the past. As a Toronto-based riding, Crawford has received strong support from the PC caucus including a door-knocking session with the Premier.

In Kanata-Carleton, considered a modest PC riding, the PC’s face a tough battle against former MP and Canadian military veteran, Karen McCrimmon. The PC’s have nominated area businessman Sean Webster, a long-time PC Party worker and volunteer who will be challenged by a lack of profile. On July 19th & 20th the PC’s will be holding their summer caucus meeting in Ottawa – look for them to fan out and blitz the area riding in support of Webster – time will tell if that’s enough. In a riding the PC’s won last year by almost a 2:1 ratio, look for this to be a very tight race.

Don’t be surprised if the PC’s and Liberals come out of these two by-elections with one victory each – but in all likelihood, maybe not the one they currently hold.

Source: Temple Scott Associates