Who will be spending the most in the foodservice space in 2025? The professionals at Environics Analytics, a Toronto-based data and analytics consultancy firm, walk us through the trends for the upcoming year
By Anna Racovali & Sandra Ware, Environics Analytics
As we look ahead to the next three years, the Canadian demographic landscape is set to shift significantly. Diverse families and young singles and new families, two key audience groups in the Canadian market, are leading the charge in household population and income growth. These groups are growing in numbers and economic influence, shaping trends across various sectors, including the food industry.
Spending and behavioural insights
Post-pandemic, quick service restaurants (QSRs) witnessed strong recovery and growth. Throughout 2024, in-store visitation has steadied, with a focus shifting towards food delivery options, such as Uber Eats. Additionally, the cost of living and food costs have significantly increased, causing diverse families and young singles and new families to be more selective and thoughtful in where they spend their money, and how much. These groups are perhaps not visiting in-store QSRs as much and are taking advantage of home delivery instead. This shift in dining preferences and behaviours highlights the ongoing impact of economic factors on consumer choices.
Diverse families
A sector of 9.8 million people nationwide, diverse families comprise almost a quarter of Canada’s population. This group is predominantly found in Ontario, with 41 per cent residing in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area. With 62 per cent belonging to a visible minority group, they represent a variety of backgrounds, with many being first-generation immigrants to Canada, often speaking non-official languages. There is also a strong presence of permanent and temporary residents within this group, with most newcomers arriving from India, China, and the Philippines. Diverse families are expected to see some of the largest growth in household population (six per cent) and average household income (11 per cent) over the next three years.
Diverse families tend to spend 21 per cent of their household income on food, comparable to the national average. Roughly 35 per cent of their food spend goes towards food purchased from restaurants, up two per cent from last year, closely aligned with the Canadian average.
Despite their average dollars spent on food, diverse families show a strong preference for ordering food for home delivery, whether through QSR or food delivery services like Uber Eats. They order home delivery frequently, with an above-average rate of ordering once a week or more. However, they continue to enjoy dining at fast-casual restaurants at high rates, indicating a preference for quality and convenience. They also tend to be receptive to new foods and cuisines, frequently visiting Chinese, Thai, Indian, and other ethnic restaurants.
As the population of diverse families continues to grow, the demand for diverse and convenient food options will increase.
Young singles and new families
Young singles and new families comprise Canada’s younger population, working either white-collar or service jobs. They account for 17 per cent of Canada’s population and are often found in urban centres such as Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver. While earning below-average incomes today, they are expected to see the highest income growth (12 per cent) over the next three years. Like diverse families, young singles and new families come from a wide range of ethnic backgrounds, with 32 per cent of residents identifying as a visible minority. Young temporary and permanent residents also tend to fall within this group, with an above-average presence of newcomers from India.
This group typically allocates a below-average portion of their income to food, which aligns with their earnings. However, when they do spend money on food, they are more likely to choose to spend it at full-service restaurants and quick service restaurants (QSRs). They dedicate nearly 40 per cent of their food budget to dining out—whether takeout or dine-in—significantly above the national average.
Like diverse families, young singles and new families enjoy ordering food for home delivery through QSR or third-party services such as Uber Eats, Skip, etc. They have an above-average frequency of ordering food, at least once a week. As this group is often found in urban areas, they benefit from the convenience of living and working near a wide variety of food options. Young singles and new families prioritize cultural sampling and believe that other cultures have a great deal to teach us, particularly through traditional foods from various cultures. This group frequently eats Chinese, Indian, Greek, and other ethnic foods.
Unsurprisingly, the most diverse audiences in Canada—diverse families and young singles and new families—are expected to see the most significant growth in population and income over the next three years, positioning them as key influencers in the food industry. As these groups continue to expand, their spending habits and preferences will shape the future of dining, with a notable shift towards home delivery. As the cost of living and food continues to rise, these groups will indeed become more thoughtful about how and where they spend their money. Understanding these trends is crucial for businesses catering to these dynamic and evolving demographics.